More Anti-Government Protests Coming In Venezuela; Turning Point Can Be 'Explosive'

In this Sept 1, 2016 photo, demonstrators take part in the “taking of Caracas” march in Caracas. Venezuela’s opposition is vowing to keep up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro after flooding the streets of the capital last week. More protests are coming  Sept. 14 to pressure pro-Maduro electoral authorities to allow for a recall referendum against Maduro this year. (Photo by Ariana Cubillos/AP)

Venezuela’s beleaguered president Nicolas Maduro is expected to face another round of angry protests this week after more than a million people took to the streets calling for his ouster. The country’s GDP is expected to contract by 10% this year, according to the government’s own figures, and inflation is mile high, currently around 700% over the last 12 months.

Maduro appears unwilling to cede power, but many members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) may cut him loose and force a referendum vote on new elections this year if the planned Sept. 14 protests are as big, or bigger, than the Sept. 1 protests.  Moreover, if PSUV suffers major losses in the October municipal elections, Maduro may start seeing his support within PSUV erode.

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have been fleeing the country, with many more crossing the border into Colombia to buy food. The country, once one of the richest in South America, has become a failed state under Maduro’s leadership.

The opposition will attempt to energize their supporters once again this week with another protest march slated for Wednesday, following the release of guidelines for the second phase of the recall referendum. The bureaucratic referendum is basically a vote as to whether or not Venezuela should hold early elections.

The opposition’s strength has been impressive as it has managed to bring in all walks of life, including former supporters of Hugo Chavez, the deceased icon of the Venezuelan anti-capitalist left and PSUV founder. A growing number of voters are rejecting the policies of the Maduro Administration and are now joining forces across political spectrums, according to sources on the ground in Caracas.

Sept. 14 could mark “a clear inflection point in the political crisis”, says Nomura Securities’ resident Venezuela tracker Siobhan Morden. Morden warns that the path towards a political transition post-Maduro is unclear, especially if the Sept. 14 turnout fades.